IMPLEMENTING A PHASED AND INTEGRATED STRATEGY TOWARD SPACE

KEITH CALHOUN - SENGHOR

New possibilities for global economic development

Almost a decade ago, a United Nations conference was held in Pretoria, South Africa. The topic was “The Commercialization of Space Activities: Challenges and Opportunities for Developing Nations.” The organizer of this conference, Dr. Ade Abiodun of the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, understood the connection that was emerging between new commercial space systems on the one hand, and Third World development strategies on the other. It was a point that was lost on many at the time.

In the period since this 1996 conference, the emerging link between long-term, sustainable development and space has become even more important, if not any more obvious. On January 14, 2004, the President announced a space vision that calls for colonization of the Moon, then Mars, then worlds beyond. However, according to some press reports, many in Congress and the private sector believe that without a commitment to realistic funding, this latest White House vision may become just another space speech or, worse still, a substantive policy that diverts scarce funding from what they believe to be important NASA programs.

Nationally and globally, there is not even an approximation of a consensus on an intellectually satisfying, publicly resonating, and practical framework for integrating space into the mosaic of our future. As a result, we lurch along, unsatisfied with the path we’re on, and yet unable to develop a consensus on a new road to take. Though we know the trajectory is wrong, we are unable to agree on the mid-course corrections that would put us back on the right course.

This lack of a clear framework for integrating space with the big picture of national and global priorities translates into limited success when it comes to justifying money for programs that could help address space-related issues in agencies other than the Department of Defense and NASA—places such as the departments of Commerce, Interior,Agriculture, and the United Nations. But viewing space as another practical tool for addressing national and global problems is exactly what must be done. For example, remote sensing, space-based communications, and global positioning system (GPS) tracking technologies are tools ideally suited to:

monitor global drought and provide early warnings;

track and control the spread of diseases in remote areas;

map environmental changes and trends;

conduct a census of refugee populations; and

secure international borders.

However, because of this reluctance to view space in practical or economic terms, we continue to have a devil of a time convincing anyone outside of a small circle of “space mafia” that space actually matters at all. What is desperately needed is a big-picture, time-phased, and integrated view of space. Indeed, the larger question of sustainable development on the planet, and the role that space will play in this endeavor, may well replace W.E.B. DuBois’s color line as the central issue of the 21st century.

THE NEXT FOUR PHASES OF SPACE EXPLORATION

The role of space in everyday life is so big and multilayered that it must be divided into digestible pieces. To address this problem, it is helpful to divide the future of space into four successive phases, ranging from what is technologically feasible today to new visions for exploration in the future.

Phase 1: The New Space Age, or “Making Money from Electrons”

At this very moment, we are at the threshold of the New Space Age. This new era is characterized by the fusion of space-based information products (highresolution satellite imagery and space-based position and timing data) made accessible by powerful, yet affordable, computers and software programs (Geographic Information Systems), which are transported instantly over a global telecommunications network (the Internet, cell phones, data lines). This combination of satellite imagery and communications, combined with software and precise data from GPS satellites, creates geospatial products that are changing our world. Its heritage is military and governmental, but it is increasingly privately owned and consumer driven. Internationally based and transnational, it is the next economic frontier.

Making money from electrons is about moving information —lots of information—quickly and seamlessly, to those who need it, at a price consumers can afford. Collecting and distributing information, and making sense of information relationships, is the dominant characteristic of this phase. For example, satellite communications and global positioning satellites currently are used to help stranded motorists signal for help with the touch of a button, commercial fleets track their trucks, auto dealerships find stolen cars, and bus systems run on time and where they are needed. However, with slightly more investment, these technologies also could be used to predict drought cycles in Zimbabwe, track the spread of deforestation in the Amazon, or identify the specific radiation signatures of crop diseases in India. The appropriate use of strategically placed, low-cost satellite “phone booths” in remote villages could weave those villages into a broad health care delivery network, or give timely agricultural assistance, or spread information about export opportunities. Rapid access to information is the key. And it is in that area that space-based technologies excel. For all of these applications to become commonplace, governments, corporations, and individuals need to view space as another tool in our toolkit for solving national and global problems.

This steady convergence of information technologies is intertwining formerly unrelated policy issues. For example, new wrinkles arise over the question of imagery versus privacy, and spam versus free speech. In Phase 1, the massive movement of space-based information also is blurring traditional distinctions between products, services, and industries that are private and those that are governmental and military. Distinctions also fade between domestic and international endeavors. The new grey areas arise because, depending on the orbit, a satellite’s view may cover anything from an entire hemisphere to the entire planet. Therefore, the potential markets for a satellite’s services almost always are regional or global. In other words, it will make little sense, geographically or economically, to limit a satellite’s services to just one country when the world is spinning below it. Therein lies the opportunity for true global development. We are dealing with a new set of conditions,many of them unprecedented.  Phase 2: Beyond Electrons—Barnstormers, Backpackers, Asteroids, and Armies

Phase 2 of the New Space Age will continue to see money being made from electrons and the information they carry, but trucking things on and off the planet will dominate this phase. In other words, commerce and trade in its historic sense finally will take root in space.

However, Phase 2 can be made possible only if there is a dramatic reduction in the cost of getting off the planet. In fact, an order of magnitude reduction in the cost of achieving orbit is an essential prerequisite for the start of Phase 2. Yet, if we are wise, we will see that there are huge benefits for achieving these cost reductions.

Transporting cargo and people through space is simply an extension of a large and existing transportation industry. Companies that can transport cargo safely and efficiently, then business travelers, tourists, and backpackers to the edge of space and beyond will be doing nothing revolutionary in economic terms.

Just as barnstormers helped to introduce airplanes to the masses after World War I, space as a novelty certainly will be a part of Phase 2. June 2004 saw the launch of Burt Rutan’s SpaceShipOne, the first private craft to carry a human into space. In October 2004, his team made history, and won the $10 million Ansari X Prize, by sending the first private spacecraft into suborbital flight twice in two weeks. Just days earlier, Sir Richard Branson had announced that his new company, Virgin Galactic, would commercialize this technology and fly private passengers into space for $190,000 per ticket by 2007. Other companies, including Space Adventures and Xcor Aerospace, also are in the hunt for this business.

A few private individuals with a hankering for space travel already have signed up to be the first space tourists. However, repeat business, be it cargo transport or entertainment, will be the real key to the economic viability of space travel. Need a package delivered anywhere on the planet in 90 minutes?

Once transportation hurdles are overcome, the economic issues of tourism, off-world mining, and satellite maintenance essentially become no different than on Earth. They will be governed by questions of supply and demand for a commodity or service, the efficiency of management, the safety of the enterprise, ownership of legal rights to extract or distribute the product, and the applicable governmental regulations. Space will become another place to conduct business as usual.

This is true whether the technologies are used to collect solar energy for transmission to Earth, deliver packages via sub-orbital routes, collect and dispose of space debris and trash, extract lunar minerals, or explore and mine nearby asteroids. All of these industries already exist on Earth in some form. The only question is whether the added dimension of space creates added value, making it worth the trip and expense. In some cases, it may. In others, it may not. But a period of making money by moving things through space is inevitable and critical to our future development. This ability, however, will never develop without serious attention to launch technologies.

One promising source of launching capabilities could be a number of privately owned, non-government launch vehicles—private space ships, essentially. An interesting consequence of this development could be the growth in the number of private space pilots to fly these ships.

And what will these New Space Age fly boys and girls do when they retire or leave their companies? Will they form their own pilot schools to train young space jockeys? Will they start their own puddle-jumping, suborbital space taxi services? Will they buy a used launcher, soup it up, and compete in stock rocket races? Or will they be forbidden by their own governments from doing any of the above? This last option, an instinct driven by national defense needs and interests, or a desire to maintain a government monopoly on space travel, would be wrong unless, in the case of the United States, the goal is to drive our best talent and imagination offshore.

Another offshoot of this phase will be new measures to protect the new merchant space fleet from those who would relieve it of its cargo. Will we create an orbital Coast Guard or space cavalry? Or will New Space Age transport companies prefer to hire their own Pinkertons? And where will these commercial launch pads be located? The physics of launching rockets gives a natural advantage to countries closest to the equator, where the spin of the Earth can be used most effectively to propel rockets into orbit. Could developing nations provide a pivotal chain of space ports or emergency landing sites for emerging commercial fleets? Could their workers help to build the low-cost launchers and parts needed for these fleets? All of these are potential points of entry for developing nations to participate as partners in Phase 2 of the New Space Age.

The implications for the path we choose are profound. The good news is that we still have time to engage in the debate. The bad news is that we may well do nothing until a crisis emerges to push us into a quick or irrational decision.

Phase 3: A World Accustomed to Wonder, New Views of our World, and New Perspectives on Global Relations

If the advent of today’s cheap international air travel is any guide, growing numbers of ordinary citizens crossing the boundary into space should lead to a subtle, but significant, shift in how we perceive our planet. For some, it may not be a dramatic, life-altering experience to see our world slowly spinning below. Or perhaps it will be. But it certainly will have a steady impact on individual perspectives about global environment, international boundaries, and our relationships with one another. It also may quicken the trend toward commercial alliances that transcend national boundaries. This broadening definition of the nation state will surely impact many traditional definitions and relationships.

Global business interests already are blurring lines between things domestic and international. The question of “who is us” for purposes of trade and technology policy is difficult now. This question will become even harder to answer in the later phases of the New Space Age.

But if Phase 3 of the New Space Age has the potential for blurring distinctions, it also has the potential to realize the ultimate promise of space: bringing humans together as a species to realize our collective plight on this delicate planet. This would be the ultimate democratizing effect of space. If problems in the environment, or the spread of disease, or the migration of people, or the use of resources were viewed not in national, but in global, terms then solutions also would be addressed globally. As a species, our survival is interlinked; we are dependent on each other. Since many of the world’s untapped resources and unspoiled areas lie in developing nations, those nations will play a pivotal role in helping us to address the problem of sustainable development. Space-based technologies can help.

Phase 4: Cowboys and Indians on Mars

The last phase of the New Space Age is perhaps the most intriguing, and most difficult to predict. It offers the possibility of realizing, at long last, the dream of every human who has ever gazed at the stars in wonder and asked what lay there.Newer, faster ways to travel will take us farther into space than anyone has ever gone.Yet, it also is Phase 4 that presents us with the greatest risk of repeating the darker episodes of our past.

There is no reason to believe that the nature of humanity will change because we leave our atmosphere and escape the gravity well of Earth. Indeed, all science fiction is based on this premise, and history proves this point. Spanish and Portuguese traders, adventurers, soldiers, and clergy brought with them the mores, cultures, diseases, ambitions, and social structures they knew, and they tried to recreate those societies in the new African, American, and Asian environments they touched.

No one should expect that traveling millions of miles through a vacuum will make us a different species, or any more tolerant of what we find when we arrive, assuming we recognize it. Nor will we be less likely to exploit our new environment for personal gain. Indeed, the pursuit of personal gain is what will drive the New Space Age.

The question is whether we will acknowledge our humanity and learn from our past. Otherwise, Phase 4 of the New Space Age could bring us full circle. We could create new cowboys and Indians on Mars. The future would not be “Star Trek,”but Dune—a return to our own dark past. This would realize not the best aspects of our human potential, but the worst (see Editorial, page iii).

Our policies must recognize the fact that we are human, and give us the chance to realize our dreams, yet control our nightmares. To do this, we must pursue a phased and integrated approach to space that treats space as part of the solution to everyday problems and long-term development. Only a phased approach that encourages commercial participation, rejects a government monopoly of space, and treats space as a practical tool for solving our development problems has any chance of getting us there from here.

Keith Calhoun-Senghor (CC ’01) served as director of the Office of Space Commercialization at the US Department of Commerce from 1993- 1999, and was involved in the development of US policy to foster the growth and competitiveness of the US commercial space sector.

Return to COSMOS 2004 Table of Contents
Return to COSMOS Journals
Return to COSMOS Home Page