THE CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

JOHN D. SHILLING AND JAMES H . BEALL

Understanding global environmental problems
requires new thinking on the modeling process

Just how poorly are we treating our planet? The question of human impacts on possible changes in Earth’s climate remains controversial. If correct, the predictions of the recent International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report draft, issued in February 2001, are cause for significant concern. According to this report, the last decade of the 20th century was the warmest ever recorded. If this warming trend continues at the same pace, there would be a further increase of 1.4-5.8 degrees centigrade in the 21st century, roughly double what was foreseen only eight years ago.

Opponents of this view argue that Earth is in an interglacial period, and currently at a peak of a temperature cycle that spans a period of 25,000 years. In this view, the well-established anthropogenic loading of Earth’s atmosphere with greenhouse gases is not a significant factor in the overall climate cycles.

The question of man’s influence on climate variations is, of course, an important one. While the apparent variations noted in Earth’s average temperature are small compared to daily and seasonal variations, their cumulative impact could be profound. Impacts in the past century that have been attributed to global warming include sea level rise (.1-.2 m), reductions in snow cover and glaciers, increased violence in weather, and changing weather patterns, including more droughts in poorer regions of the globe. While such an association is muddied by the well-established climate cycles, it is only prudent to take seriously the possibility that human activity is contributing to global climate change.

The consequences for human life of an anthropogenic component in global climate variations would be profound. For example, many fear that a significant fraction of humanity could be prevented from achieving the benefits of the industrial revolution that has occurred (or is occurring) in Europe, Russia, China, the United States, and some nations in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition, a substantial change in energy production, use, and distribution in industrialized nations would be required to help achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere.

What would have to change in human lifestyles should significant reductions in CO₂ emissions prove necessary? Such a question demands, as never before, a consideration of the various elements that comprise modern industrial civilization. Realizing the interdisciplinary nature of this problem, Chester Cooper (CC ’71) has organized a series of “Soirées” or “thinking dinners” at the Cosmos Club over the past year to help establish a framework for modeling the relationships between human activity and climatological consequences. Such a framework includes broad discussions of the kind of world we want (or perhaps must accept).

These discussions have been based on the ongoing research at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where modelers have been investigating the major changes in human activities that may lead to different impacts on the initial conditions and elements of climate change models. The results of these discussions are contributing to improving PNNL’s research in these areas. The Cosmos Club Soirées have fostered lively debate on a number of areas of interest. Five of these areas, and the analytical contributions of some Cosmos Club members, are discussed here.

Development Pressures. Throughout the world, energy use is the engine of growth and development. It is also the main cause of human-related greenhouse emissions. The good news is that as economies advance, improved technologies help bring about lower energy use per unit of output. The bad news is that growth has proceeded faster than the efficiency gains, and total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing.

The developed world (one billion people), representing about one-sixth of the world’s population, is the largest producer of greenhouse gases, accounting for about two-thirds of all emissions. Within this group, there is tremendous variation between countries. For example, the United States produces about half again as much CO₂ per unit of output as Europe and twice that of Japan. For these countries, simply stabilizing greenhouse gas production is viewed as a major effort, but possible.

The next third of the world’s population (two billion) lives passably well on per capita incomes of roughly $1000 to $8000. These countries are entering the phase of development characterized by major accumulations of physical capital, productive capacity, and consumer durables (e.g., refrigerators, air conditioners, and cars). They often lack the concomitant investment needed to yield energy efficiency gains and pollution control. Even with increased efficiency, they will undoubtedly contribute to a major increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions because of these transitions.

The remaining half of the world’s population lives on less than $2 per day, and energy consumption is miniscule per capita, though substantial overall. If we achieve stated goals of improving the standard of living of this segment of the global population, their energy consumption will increase substantially. If this occurs, another 3 billion people (5-6 billion by 2050) will achieve the standard of living of a present-day Mexico. This implies the development of a substantial infrastructure, including hundreds of millions of additional cars, hundreds of thousands of miles of roads, and the energy to power these economies. It is an open question whether it is possible for the two lower per capita energy-consuming groups of nations to avoid most of the negative environmental impacts of their predecessors by adopting the latest energy efficient and non-polluting technologies and practices.

It is a significant challenge to use models to determine how fast and how long the increasing rates of greenhouse gas emissions will continue. It is not unreasonable to suppose that lower rates of CO₂ accumulations in the atmosphere would produce lower risks of severe climate changes, and provide more flexibility and options for future generations. But slowing down the rate of greenhouse gas emissions will require stepped-up research efforts in energy efficiency technologies, and shifting demand in developed countries to lower energy use patterns. The latter will have benefits both for its direct effect and for its utility as an example to billions who want to emulate a modern lifestyle. Technology transfer to developing countries could be accelerated to spread use of the most efficient technologies as quickly as possible, although this may have implications for export control policies that apply to technologies that can be used for military purposes.

Population Dynamics. Population growth will have a tremendous impact on any attempts to project energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. A great concern of the 20th century was the global population explosion, which saw the world grow from 2 billion to 6 billion people—the greatest expansion in the history of the human race. Economic progress, improved nutrition, and better health management all contributed to the population expansion, especially where poorer nations were able to improve diet, health, and life spans in the latter half of the century.

As the increase in population became manifest, Malthus’ doctrine on the carrying capacity of the land gained new currency, prompting renewed efforts in population planning. A combination of population planning, improved economic welfare, and other related factors have brought many industrialized nations to a level at or near zero population growth. However, during the 20th century, the populations of developing nations have continued to expand exponentially, raising demand for water, energy, and other natural resources.

These demographic trends have widespread implications for the global economy and for climate change models. In the industrialized nations, for example, the demographic shifts resulting from low or zero population growth rates suggest that the aging populations will not be able to provide the amounts and types of labor needed to sustain these economies. This scenario already is evident in Europe and Japan. In America, the dynamism of the economy in recent decades can be explained partly by the contributions of immigrants, but there are growing concerns about the ability of our society to support the growing numbers of retirees. Cultural and social conditions could present either remarkable opportunities or severe challenges if the developed countries try to meet their labor needs with surplus labor from the poorer countries.

The demographic evidence suggests that this type of population “bust” trend may emerge in some of the larger developing countries by mid-century. We have begun to examine in the Soirées the possible impacts of an aging population. With more retirees, it seems plausible that there could be greater demand for leisure activities, some of which are energy intensive (e.g., travel), and greater demand for personal services. To the extent a younger population is more dynamic and innovative, the rate of technological change may slow as the population ages. But an aging population could create more demand for innovations, particularly in medicine. Since many of the implications have different potential impacts on carbon emissions and climate change, this will be a major topic in future discussions.

Any population models, however, are sensitive to advances in medicine and the virulence of disease vectors that would alter demographic patterns. In developed countries, infectious diseases have been drastically reduced as a cause of death, and this will continue, absent a pandemic of a new killer like Ebola or a particularly deadly flu strain. Medical advances and the promises of biogenetic research are not only increasing life expectancy, but may extend the ultimate possible life spans so more people can live and remain active longer. This has many implications for economic, social, and political activities.

In developing countries, however, infectious diseases are still the most important killers, and this will only change as medical services and general welfare increase. It may be unrealistic to hope that pharmaceutical companies will direct greater efforts toward solving some of the world’s age-old medical needs. Malaria, for instance, kills millions every year, but more money has been spent in recent years producing and marketing Viagra than on malaria control.

New dangers lurk in the shadows with the potential to affect all populations, in both richer and poorer nations. New infectious diseases can emerge and travel quickly to all corners of the Earth. HIV/AIDS has both spread worldwide and is devastating the poorest parts of the world. Other, as yet unknown, viruses may emerge. Deteriorating health practices, both in other countries and in the industrialized world, can lead to the resurgence of treatment-resistant diseases, such as tuberculosis, which can be carried to other industrialized countries no longer prepared to treat them on a large scale. Overuse of antibiotics in animal feed can create resistant strains of bacteria that attack both man and animals. Animals, too, have become global travelers, as the recent European crises with hoof-and-mouth disease and bovine spongeiform encephalitis (BSE) attest. BSE also was discovered recently in Japan.

Providing Adequate Welfare. For the first time in human history, there are no accessible land frontiers that growing populations can use to feed, clothe, and house themselves. Nearly one billion people exist with inadequate nutrition, a figure that has remained roughly constant for several decades. UN Food and Agriculture Organization studies indicate that the world probably will have enough capacity to feed the expected population in 2030, based on reasonable assumptions about productivity growth, irrigation intensification, and some expansion of cultivation into land currently in other use. This latter change in land use is partly to make up for the expansion of urban and suburban areas as the global urban population grows to exceed the rural population in about another decade. The ease of feeding everyone would depend in part on preferences: high-meat diets require more land than low-meat diets to generate the same number of calories.

More important, perhaps, will be the policies concerning the distribution of food. Abundant surpluses are expected in the affluent temperate zones (North America, Europe, Australia, and Argentina), even absent the possible beneficial effects of global warming. The demands for food in excess of production will be among the poor living in the tropical zones, where global climate change is likely to have the most adverse effects. Economic, structural, and political issues related to the distribution of food will have to be addressed in order to prevent widespread malnutrition and suffering in these areas. Such regions are fertile grounds for strife.

Water Resources. While global warming may help boost agricultural production in developed (and well-fed) countries, this hopeful prediction of adequate food supplies depends on a number of factors, including abundant water resources. Currently, 40 percent of the world’s population lives in areas facing water stress. That proportion is expected to increase, bringing new pressures on water resources, and new disputes over water rights. Any possible climate changes associated with global warming will likely mean sharp declines in surface water availability in many areas, and it is unclear whether changes in rainfall patterns will help the situation in other areas. Access to clean water is also vital for improving health.

The outcomes in these areas will depend far more on policy—both national and international—than on technology. Most important will be proper pricing and other allocation methods to reduce inefficient and wasteful use of water and improve the technology for distribution and use (e.g., drip irrigation and covered aqueducts). The results of these decisions, in terms of political stability and conflict levels, will have a major impact on how much progress can be made in other areas. If water needs can be met peaceably and with a reasonable degree of equity, prospects for adequate food production and access to clean water and sanitation will increase.

The Role of Technology. The degree to which technological innovation can be relied upon to provide solutions to some of these global problems is one of the most difficult aspects discussed at the Cosmos Club Soirées. Information technology clearly has a number of effects on society. Telecommuting and video-conferencing, for example, can reduce demands on the transportation sector and potentially lower CO₂ emissions, but only if there is a sophisticated and flexible infrastructure already in place. This includes acceptance of such practices in the workplace, as well as the investment in fiber optic cables to link telecommuters and teleconferencers.

Perhaps the most critical aspect of public policy in support of technological revolutions is the significant and continued investment in basic research and technology development. The microelectronics revolution began not simply with the invention of the transistor (deriving from basic research), but with strategic investments in integrated circuitry by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in the 1970s and 1980s. These investments were targeted because of a prescient understanding of the role they could play in military equipment, but they were readily adapted for use by the commercial sector.

The reformation that has resulted has extended to every aspect of life in a technological society, from the home office to the factory floor. Just-in-time production and transport now replaces the storage of large inventories that once were required to keep factory output at peak levels. This is only one of thousands of examples of the effects of the microelectronics revolution on modern life. It is not an exaggeration to say that the beginnings of this reformation can be traced to a strategic investment by a single government agency. In this epoch, one of the most promising areas of research should focus on improving energy efficiency and reducing the carbon emissions of energy production. Energy itself is not the problem; it is the byproducts that result from energy production that are problematic. To catalyze the next round of innovations, we need similar strategic investments based on credible and farsighted public policy.

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Much of the modeling on climate change to date has focused on the technical aspects associated with the computer models used to predict climate change. The convergence of the predictions of most climate models over the last decade is due to “benchmarking,” that is, the comparison and tuning of one model’s predictions with respect to the predictions of another. This practice is essential to establish confidence in highly complex computer codes.

The challenge now is to focus better the use of these models incorporating some of the non-technical variables discussed at the Cosmos Club Soirées. The societal factors determine those activities, coefficients, and initial conditions that are not included directly in existing computer models. Therefore, while models can estimate the physical consequences of greenhouse gas loading in the atmosphere—the degree to which the climate in each region will get warmer or colder, how much warmer Earth’s average temperature could get, and where regional changes in weather patterns can manifest themselves—the degree of this greenhouse gas loading depends on human choices that are determined to a considerable extent by factors outside the bounds within which the modeler normally works. Though seemingly radical, this statement simply reflects the fact that human decisions and activities drive the factors that can affect climate.

We have engaged in these Soirées for this reason: to try to determine in greater depth the interrelatedness between human activities and their environmental consequences. The real reason for these efforts is the hope of making reasonable and likely assumptions upon which to enhance our modeling efforts. By implication, the interrelatedness of the problems facing the world must be met by a wide-ranging and seamless public policy that uses the best available models in the light of the most considered judgment that we can muster.

John D. Shilling (CC ’01), left, has worked on economic development issues as a professor, as an advisor to governments, and as a senior official at the World Bank. He currently is focusing on environmental sustainability, both analytically and by helping start-up businesses move in that direction. James H. Beall (CC ’95) is a faculty member at St. John’s College in Annapolis, MD, and a senior consultant to the E.O. Hulburt Center for Space Research at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, DC. His interests include astrophysics, defense policy, the theory of complex non-linear systems, and poetry.

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